Political risk assessment arguments for and against

If you are American, SSC endorses voting in this presidential election. Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver, and Aaron Edlin calculate the chance that a single vote will determine the election ie break a tie in a state that breaks an Electoral College tie. It ranges from about one in ten million if you live in a swing state to one in a billion if you live in a very safe state.

Try the following tried-and-trusted almost universal spreadsheet-based method to evaluate your options and choose the tools, methods, software, cars, partners, holiday destinations, political parties, employers, employees, careers, lifestyles, widgets First shortlist and look over the available methods and tools, thinking carefully about your requirements.

What do you expect the method or tool to achieve for you? Are there any things that your would want your chosen method or tool not to do e. Consider aspects under headings such as: Few information security or risk management professionals would recommend truly quantitative analysis of information risks in all circumstances due to the shortage of reliable data on incidents probabilities and impactsalthough they are potentially useful in some more narrowly-defined situations.

Furthermore, which information assets are you concerned with? Will you be completing the analysis just once or repeatedly, and if so how often?

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If you intend to gather and analyze vast amounts of data over time, you will probably prefer tools based on databases rather than spreadsheets; Maintainability and support: Clearly, therefore, they vary in the amount of technical expertise required to install, configure and maintain them.

Commercial software having flexibility as a key design goal may give the best of both worlds; Usability: Some attempt to reduce the information gathering phase to simplistic self-completion questionnaires for risk non-specialists, others require competent risk analysts to collect the data; Value: Purchase price is just one factor.

An expensive tool may be entirely appropriate for an organization that will get loads of value from the additional features.

A cheap or free tool may prove costly to learn, difficult to use and limited in the features it offers Your value judgment and final selection is the end result of the evaluation process. You may even decide to adopt more than one for different situations and purposes! Now write down your evaluation criteria, preferably as rows in a spreadsheet.

Finally, insert mathematical functions to multiply each score by the corresponding weight and total each column, and your spreadsheet is ready to support the next step: You are now all set to write your investment proposal, management report or whatever, adding and referring to the completed evaluation spreadsheet as an appendix.

Those evaluation comments repay the effort at this stage. Consider incorporating sample reports, screenshots etc. The information it contains the criteria, the weightings, the scores and the comments is valuable and deserves protection.

Consider the information risks! If your organization already does some form of risk analysis or assessment of its information security or indeed other risks, it is generally worth adopting the same or a similar approach at least at the start.

Your colleagues are likely to be more comfortable with what they know, and hence it should be easier to get them to focus on the analysis rather than the method being used. Within reason you can also pick out useful parts of methods or processes piecemeal, rather than necessarily adopting the entire set.

Remember, risk analysis is a tool, a step on the way not a destination in itself. The point is that conventional arithmetic does not work correctly with such numbers.

Numeric values such as 1, 2 and 3 indicating counts or quantities of the instances of something are called cardinal numbers. The second value 2 indicates exactly twice the amount indicated by the first 1while the third value 3 indicates exactly three times the first amount.

Conventional arithmetic is applicable to cardinals.There’s a difference between trying to negotiate on T-bills, which is ridiculous and unworkable, and prosecuting women who get abortions/encouraging reprisals against innocent civilians/censoring communications/using the courts to beat down your opponents, most of which have been hugely effective tactics for establishing political control at one point or other.

General Overviews. There are few works that seek to provide a comprehensive overview of arguments for the existence of God; there are rather more works that seek to give a thorough treatment of arguments for and against the existence of God.

Sep 10,  · Against Empathy from Boston Review. Most people see the benefits of empathy as too obvious to require justification. Arguments about the prohibition of drugs, and over drug policy reform, are subjects of considerable controversy.

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The following is a presentation of major drug policy arguments, including those for drug law enforcement on one side of the debate, and arguments for drug law reform on the other. Political Report to the Tenth Cosatu National Congress.

Theme: Consolidating Working Class Power in Defense of Decent Work and for Socialism. Table of Contents.

Risk is the possibility of losing something of value. Values (such as physical health, social status, emotional well-being, or financial wealth) can be gained or lost when taking risk resulting from a given action or inaction, foreseen or unforeseen (planned or not planned).Risk can also be defined as the intentional interaction with uncertainty.